By the start of November 1914 the war was going poorly for
the Center Powers (Germany and Austria-Hungary). Austria-Hungary’s invasion of
both Serbia and Russia had failed badly and Russia had taken vast tracts of
Austro-Hungarian land. Despite early German successes on both Western and
Eastern Fronts, the situation was now bleak. The French and British armies had
halted the German advance in France, leading to a stalemate. In the East much
of the Russian armies had been smashed, but with most of the German army tied
down in France and with the Austro-Hungarian army in no position to provide much
support, the Germans did not have the manpower to take advantage of the Russian
weakness. With the winter setting in the chances of a quick victory, or any
victory, in either the West or the East was quickly evaporating. Some high
officials in both the German and Austro-Hungarian military and government were
discussing the possibility of entering into peace negotiations and ending the
war while they were in some position to negotiate peace terms. From both the
Allied and Central Powers points of view the war had hit its high watermark,
and could possible end sooner than later.
But with Russia’s declaration of war (and Great Britain and
France quickly following suit) on the Ottoman Empire the whole dynamic of the
war would shift. Though the Ottoman Empire’s government had been reluctant to
join the war, its military had been eager and was prepared for operation the
day Russia declared war.
The Central Powers desperately need Ottoman Empire as an
ally, and with the Ottoman Empire the Central Powers gained several advantages.
First off this ensured that the Turkish straights would remain closed to Allied
ships (it had closed some weeks earlier on the grounds of remaining neutral in
the conflict, now there was no risk of the Allies negotiating the straights to
be reopened). This was a disaster for the Russian empire. With war on its
western land border almost all of Russia’s international trade had to pass
through the Turkish straights. With that closed not only would it be
devastating to Russia’s economy it was a massive blow to its army as well. Russia
was not as industrially developed as many of the European powers and could not
manufacture much of the weapons its armies needed on the scale that the war
required. In the past Russia traded its vast agricultural and raw material resources
for cash, which in turn it would use buy the industrial goods and modern
weapons it needed. This was cheaper then manufacturing the items domestically
as the Russian Empire lacked the much of the technical expertise needed to
build and maintain the necessary factories. In a few months the Russian army
would be short on everything it needed. By the summer of 1915 hundreds of
thousands of Russian soldiers would be sent to the frontlines with no weapons,
no ammunition, and would receive rations
barely able to prevent starvation.
Secondly, the Russian army would have to move hundreds of
thousands of soldiers from the Eastern front, were they were badly needed, to
the Caucasus (the region between the Black and the Caspian Seas), where Russia
shared a border with the Ottoman Empire. This region had to be defended because
it was the chief producer of oil for the Russian Empire.
Thirdly, the Ottoman Empire controlled what is today Israel
and Palestine and was in a prime position to attack the British controlled Suez
canal, which Great Britain needed to remain open to keep the British Isles
supplied with raw materials from its colonies in Asia to keep it war economy
afloat. This required the British Empire to relocate troops, needed both in
colonial conflicts and the Western front, to Egypt to defend the Suez.
Lastly, the Ottoman Empire had diplomatic and intelligence
connections though out the Islamic world
(being the most powerful Islamic state of its day) with Ottoman weapons,
supplies, intelligence and diplomatic encouragement uprising and rebellions
caused conflicts for the French, British and Russian colonial forces and allies
in the Islamic world stretching from Algeria to Afghanistan. This required the
Allies to move even more troop out of Europe and into the Middle East and North
Africa.
All of this culminated in a great reduction of pressure for
Germany and Austria-Hungary, which gave then the confidence that they could win
the war after all and gave up on finding a diplomatic solution. The war would
go on and there was little chance that 1915 bringing peace.
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