"One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans "
-Otto
von Bismarck 1st chancellor of Germany, 1888
The conflict between the Kingdom of Serbia and the
Austro-Hungarian Empire was the spark that ignited the First World War. The
assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was the tipping point but it was not
the source of this conflict. Both nations had good reasons to be fearful of
each other. Austria-Hungary had been expanded into the Balkans in mid-nineteenth
century (by 1914 it controlled much of what is modern day Slovenia, Croatia and
Bosnia-Herzegovina). This region was vital to Austria-Hungary as it is where the
Empire's only seaports were located along the Adriatic sea. At this time
railroads and steamships were the foundation of any wealthy nation's economy.
Free trade was more or less none existent. If
Austria-Hungary did not control a port with ocean access it would have
to pay tariffs on everything the country imported and exported that crossed
another nations borders.
Serbia was growing in power in the Balkans having achieve
much in the First and Second Balkan War (fought in 1912 to 1913). Serbia has aspirations
of achieving independence of Slavic regions controlled by non-Slavic nations
(and absorbing these regions when possible after independence was achieved). Austria-Hungary
controlled many Slavic regions neighboring Serbia that were not enthusiastic
about being under Austria-Hungarian rule. The Kingdom of Serbia had no hope of
facing Austria-Hungary in a direct war to liberate these regions. Austria-Hungary
was larger, more wealthy, and had a much larger population and army than Serbia.
Even though Serbia knew is could not face Austria-Hungary in
a war, it could (and did) offer support and encouragement to Slavic political
groups (some peaceful and some not) in Austria-Hungary that wanted increased autonomy
(or outright independence) from Austria-Hungary.
The Slavic regions of Austro-Hungarian Empire that the
Serbia supported Slavic independence political groups (and arguably some groups
we could call terrorist today) were the same regions that Austria-Hungary
relied on for its national seaports. Austria-Hungary could not afford for these
regions to be destabilized (or allow them independence). Economically Serbia's
actions were very threatening to Austria-Hungary.
At the same time Austria-Hungary was an Empire with aspirations
of expanding its power in the Balkans (as Russia's and the Ottoman Empire's influence
in the region was waning and the Austro-Hungarian Empire was eager to fill the
void). So in the mind of Austro-Hungarian politicians a war with Serbia would
kill two birds with one stone. If would put a stop to Serbian meddling in its vital
Adriatic coastal region and expand its power in the Balkans as Russia and the Ottoman
Empires withdraw interest from the region.
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